Cash Flow Forecast for Restaurants
Profit tells you whether the restaurant makes money. Cash tells you whether you can make payroll the week after a slow month. Answer a few questions about your sales and bills, and this lays out the next 52 weeks on real dates, so you can see your tightest week coming while there is time to do something about it. It works for any small business: set the delivery app share to zero.
Your cash
Sales
Delivery apps, cards and sales tax
Costs that move with sales
Monthly bills
Above your cushion Below your cushion Out of cash Your cushion
The same plan with sales 10% lower, food cost 2 points higher, and both at once.
| Scenario | Lowest cash | When | After 52 weeks |
|---|
Sales minus food and drink, labor, card and delivery fees, and your monthly bills. Loan payments and estimated taxes are cash, not costs, so they show up in the cash forecast but not here.
| Month | Sales | Prime cost | Profit before your pay | After your pay |
|---|
Week-by-week detail
| Week | Starts | Cash in | Cash out | Closing cash |
|---|
A forecast is only as good as its inputs. This one assumes the same food, labor and fee percentages all year, sales that rise and fall smoothly between your busiest and slowest months, delivery app payouts a week after the order, payroll in arrears, and sales tax paid on the 20th for the month before. Your state's sales tax schedule may differ. In some states the delivery apps collect and pay the sales tax on their orders, so this counts sales tax on in-store sales only. Estimated tax dates move to the next business day when the 15th is a weekend or holiday. Estimates only. This calculator is for educational purposes and is not financial, tax or legal advice.
How to use it
- Start with your bank balance today and the cushion you never want to go below, such as one payroll plus rent.
- Sales: enter a typical week, then your busiest and slowest months and how far they swing. Your point of sale system's sales report by month shows the pattern.
- Costs as a percentage of sales: food and drink, and labor including payroll taxes and benefits. Together these are your prime cost, the two numbers restaurant owners watch most.
- Bills on their dates: rent, utilities and insurance, your loan, everything else, your own pay and your quarterly estimated taxes. Add any one big payment coming up, such as new equipment or a yearly insurance premium.
- Read the low point, then check the what-ifs. If a 10% drop in sales or a 2-point rise in food cost puts you under, you know how much room you really have.
What makes restaurant cash tricky
Sales tax isn't your money. Customers hand it to you every day, and you pay it to the state once a month. It sits in your account in between, which makes the balance look bigger than it is. The forecast adds it when you collect it and takes it out on the 20th, so the dip shows up where it really happens.
Delivery apps pay later, and keep a cut. Orders through the apps come in a week later, less the commission. The forecast shows that cash when it lands, not when the food goes out the door.
Payroll is paid for work already done. A busy week's labor is paid in the next payroll, so cash goes out after the rush, often just as a slow stretch begins.
Quarterly estimated taxes land all at once. If you pay estimated tax as an owner, the federal due dates are January 15, April 15, June 15 and September 15. January's often falls in the slowest month of the year.
What the spreadsheet does
The download is a real Excel file with your numbers. Every week is a row, and each line (sales, food, payroll, rent and so on) is a yellow cell you can overwrite with what actually happened. Totals, opening and closing cash, the lowest week and the weeks below your cushion are live formulas. It opens in Excel, Google Sheets, Apple Numbers and LibreOffice. Nothing you type here is sent anywhere; the file is built in your browser.
Sources: U.S. Small Business Administration, Manage your finances; SCORE and SBA, Financial Management Workbook; IRS, estimated tax due dates. The example restaurant is made up; its 66% prime cost is in the range of the National Restaurant Association's 2024 medians shown in the prime cost calculator.
Frequently Asked Questions
How do I make a cash flow forecast for my restaurant?
Start with your bank balance, then estimate the cash coming in each week (in-store sales, delivery app payouts and the sales tax you collect) and the cash going out (food and drink, payroll, card fees, rent, bills, loan payments, your own pay, sales tax and estimated taxes) on the dates each one actually moves. Each week opens with the last week's closing cash.
Why forecast 52 weeks instead of 13?
A restaurant's year has slow and busy seasons. Thirteen weeks shows the next quarter, but only a full year shows whether the cash you build in the busy months carries you through the slow ones, and when the tightest week falls.
Is cash flow the same as profit?
No. Profit counts sales and costs when they happen. Cash flow counts money when it actually moves. Sales tax, delivery app payouts, payroll in arrears and loan principal all make cash differ from profit, which is why a profitable month can still end with less in the bank.
What is prime cost?
Food and drink cost plus labor cost, as a share of sales. It is the main cost number restaurant owners track. The monthly profit table shows it for each month, and the prime cost calculator compares yours with the National Restaurant Association's published medians.
Does the Excel download have formulas?
Yes. Each week is a row of yellow input cells you can change, and every total, opening and closing balance, the lowest week and the count of weeks below your cushion are live formulas.